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Thursday, August 11, 2011

The Boy who cried Bull and Bear markets.

     The Boy Who Cried Wolf, is a parable included in Aesop's Fables.  It warns against lying because of its inevitable consequences. The phrase "the boy who cried wolf" has even become a part of common vernacular. The boy, a sheepherder, was bored while guarding the sheep on a hill, so he cried out that a wolf was attacking the sheep. The villagers rushed over, only to find out that the boy had lied to them. The boy cried out a second time, with the same results. At the end of the parable, a real wolf comes to devour the sheep, and the boy cries out, but the villagers ignore him because they believe he is only trying to fool them. The boy discovers that a liar will seldom be believed, even when he is telling the truth.

I think that we see this principle at work every day in the stock market.  Every day we hear that the economy is tanking, and people riot in the streets of London.  Then, the next day, we hear that unemployment went down, and and XYZ company had better than anticipated earnings, and the economy stabilizes.  It is to the point that I am getting desensitized to the despair and woe of wall street.  Pretty soon, we will be at a situation where Bank of America will need a bailout.  The government has little money to spare, and I think its time to let unsuccessful businesses or those  with shitty accounting practices like GROUPON, PANDORA or LINKEDIN fail.  It will come at a point in history where we have been absolutely beaten down with bad news, so it will be really hard to muster up an ounce of "Give a Fuck"  attitude to put my kids into massive debt to save a shitty bank. 




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